Generative AI: is it worth the hype?

Everywhere you look, people are talking about generative AI. From social media to street advertising and politics, it’s infiltrated every part of our lives. But does it bring all the benefits it promises?

The headlines, as usual, are dramatised: “Generative AI will change the world”; “The generative AI revolution has begun”. People are bursting with anticipation at the potential opportunities generative AI opens up, and the hype around it is infectious. At a recent tech conference I attended in Toronto, almost every start-up had the words “AI-powered” written in their description.

While these start-ups weren’t all specifically talking about generative AI, it got me thinking about everyone jumping on the hype train. It’s no longer a unique selling point if everyone is using it. And the real question is whether or not it makes a big difference to the solution you’re trying to provide.

Generally speaking, we overestimate the power of emerging tech in the short term and underestimate that of the long term. This idea is known as Gates’ Law — based upon an observation Stanford computer scientist Roy Amara made in the 1960s on the technology hype cycle.

Early predictions of how new technologies will impact society are often wrong as there’s no baseline for knowing how it will evolve, or how people will use it. Take the internet for example. Originally built for government researchers to share information during the Cold War, it evolved in such a powerful, transformative way. Now society is completely reliant on it for every aspect of our lives — work, the news, social communication, entertainment etc.

In more recent years, other emerging technologies like NFTs and the metaverse followed a different trajectory. Initially having a lot of hype with lofty predictions of how much they would be worth and how they would change life as we know it, they never truly kicked off. Big players like Meta that invested in the metaverse or NFTs have now lost billions: it’s estimated that Meta lost around $50billion since 2019.

It’s a chicken and egg situation: often, the hype determines the value, but increased investment equally leads people to believe it’ll become more valuable. The Financial Times suggests that hype, not hyperintelligence, is increasing the value of generative AI.

Not everyone is caught up in the generative AI hype. Amongst the cheerleaders, there are plenty of naysayers and polarising headlines, saying: “Generative AI is a disaster”; “Humans are biased: Generative AI is even worse”. Many people see some botched-up examples of generated content and dismiss it as being completely incapable, ignoring the fact that the technology is still in its infancy and is still learning.

But it’s not just opinions in the media. Goldman Sachs recently released a report questioning how quickly the errors generative AI still makes can be fixed, and whether the benefits of generative AI are worth the huge amounts of money being spent on it. The report argues “the technology isn’t designed to solve the complex problems that would justify the costs, which may not decline as many expect.”

There are vastly opposing opinions on whether generative is an asset, a danger, or simply another trend passing through. There’s no unanimous prediction of what a future with this new tech might hold. But it’s probably sensible to be a bit sceptical, ignore the hype and instead focus on the value — especially if you’re considering investing in it for your business.